A tsunami resulting from even a moderate earthquake would engulf highly populated Mediterranean coastal areas, a study in the journal Ocean Science has revealed.
Mediterranean water in Lavazzi island
Using a computer simulation, scientists discovered that Italy, Greece and Libya would all be inundated with waves if a magnitude 7 earthquake occurred beneath Sicily or Crete.
Low-lying areas up to five metres above sea level would be flooded by the resulting tsunami, and up to 3.5 square kms of Crete would be entirely submerged. This means that around 130 million people are at risk in Mediterranean coastal areas, and they would receive little advanced warning due to the short distance the waves need to travel.
"We wanted to find out how coastal areas would be affected by tsunamis in a region that is not only the most active in the Mediterranean in terms of seismicity and tectonic movements, but has also experienced numerous tsunami events in the past," said Dr Achilleas Samaras, who led the study.
These past tsunami events include the earthquake that struck Messina, Italy in 1908, generating waves more than 10 metres high and killing thousands; as well as the tsunami that destroyed ancient cities in Greece, Italy and Egypt in 365 AD, when 5,000 people died in Alexandria alone.
The Mediterranean experiences a large tsunami about once every century.